The Sunshine State’s commodity boom is expected to lose momentum and values are tipped to decrease.
Queensland coal spot prices will decline by the end the 2024 financial year (FY24) and return to normal levels. This is the assessment of State Auditor-General Brendan Worrall.
The Queensland Audit Office reveals the “world’s highest coal royalty tax rates” will not prevent a $4 billion drop in state revenue during the period. This could bring a 37 per cent decrease in FY24 plus a further 45 per cent fall during FY25.
“Queensland’s net debt to revenue ratio is expected to increase over the next four years, while remaining below the levels in New South Wales and Victoria. This result is driven by the budgeted increase in borrowings under the capital program and a reduction in revenue in 2023–24 as coal prices normalise,” Worrall said in the latest managing debt and investments report.
“This is because the exceptionally high coal and oil prices seen in 2022–23 are expected to fall as commodity prices return to normal. Total revenue is then expected to remain steady at $84B over the next two years with a rise to $87B in 2026–27.”
The State Government introduced new tiered royalty rates of up to 40 per cent once the average coal price per tonne exceeded $300 since 2022. However, the new report suggests the tax windfall only enjoyed a “temporary surge” during FY23.
Click here to read the full report.
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